Free trading calculator
Trading Expectancy Calculator
Estimate the average value of each trade using your win rate, average winner, and average loser.
Expectancy inputs
Enter your trading statistics
Expected value per trade
$52.50
Positive expectancy
- Loss rate
- 55%
- Payoff ratio
- 1:2
- Breakeven win rate
- 33.33%
- Projected result over 100 trades
- $5,250.00
How it works
Expectancy combines probability and payoff
1. Enter win rate
Use the percentage of trades that closed profitably.
2. Enter average outcomes
Add the average dollar winner and the average dollar loser.
3. Review expected value
The calculator estimates the average amount gained or lost per trade.
Trading expectancy formula
Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss)
The result estimates the average dollar value of one trade based on the historical inputs.
Example
- 45% win rate
- 55% loss rate
- $300 average winner
- $150 average loser
- $52.50 expected value per trade
- $5,250 projected result over 100 trades before costs
Why expectancy matters
Win rate alone does not show whether a strategy is strong. A high win rate can still lose money if average losses are much larger than average winners.
Expectancy combines how often you win with how much you gain or lose when each outcome occurs.
Important limitations
Historical expectancy can change as market conditions, execution, trade selection, and position sizing change.
The projected result does not include commissions, slippage, taxes, skipped trades, or future changes in performance. It is educational—not financial advice.
Measure your real performance
Track expectancy across your actual trade history.
TradeStaxx connects expectancy with setups, symbols, timing, accounts, and the decisions behind each trade.